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March
Betting on the NCAA tournament –
it's a jungle out there
San Diego Union Tribune, United States - Mar
15, 2006
LAS VEGAS – There's a hurried calm in Caesars Palace's sports
book, days before the place is turned into the “Jungle Book.”
That's when a mob of bettors from around the country will swarm
in to wager on the annual NCAA tournament, then hang around to watch
their fates unfold.
Behind the big screen TVs and walls of digital displays – gambling's equivalent of the stock market floor – expert oddsmaker Chuck Esposito prepares for the onslaught, poring over the numbers in his back office while talking to a colleague on the phone.
In the world of sports betting, only the Super Bowl sees more action.
Esposito is responsible for setting point spreads in every game for
all of Harrah's Entertainment Inc.'s eight Nevada properties. The
spread must not only attract bets but ensure the book makes a profit.
In 18 years, he's never gone wrong.
“We've had losing days. We definitely have had during the
tournament,” he said.
As for losing for the entire tournament?
“We have not.”
Cyril Burger, director of specialty gaming at Harrah's Flamingo
resort, haggles with Esposito on the phone over the spread for perennial
favorite Duke, a No. 1 seed which faces No. 16 Southern in the first
round.
Burger argues Duke should be a 28-point favorite.
“I think they might just whack this team because they've
been playing so many close games,” Burger said. “They
might just take it out on Southern.”
Esposito and sports book supervisor David Grisar propose a spread
of 26½ and 24, respectively. Esposito settles on 26½.
Why such high numbers?
Teams with a big fan base will often receive plenty of bets no
matter the size of the spread. Fans of the underdog need a big point
spread to be enticed to bet.
“They're a very public team, a team that can easily win the
tournament,” Esposito said of Duke. “I'm not predicting
winners. I want to put up a number that will draw good two-way action.”
Every year, sports betting in Nevada surges around this time of
year as gamblers throw down money on the 65-team bracket. Most bets
are made on individual games, others are picks for what team will
win the national title.
Last March, basketball betting at Nevada's 176 legal sports books
jumped by $79.6 million from February for a total of $170.9 million.
The year before, it increased by $86.8 million to $163.9 million.
The book always keeps “the juice” – about 5 percent
of all bets wagered – but the point spread can make or break
the book or the bettors.
Bettors can wager on the favored team to win by a certain number
of points – the spread. Or they can bet on the underdog to
pull off an upset or lose by fewer than that number. If they win,
they get back their initial bet, plus $10 for every $11 wagered.
Setting the spread is “almost like an art form,” Esposito
said. “We're raising numbers and lowering numbers to put ourselves
in the best possible position where we hold a high percentage in
different events.”
Statistics, injuries, coaching styles, travel and whether the team
is perceived to have “a chip on their shoulder” all
factor in.
The goal is to draw an equal amount of bets on each side of the
spread, he said.
“If we can achieve perfect two-way action, we would win every
game,” Esposito said. “We would end up winning the 5
percent juice that's out there, but that's almost impossible to
do.”
In another case, Esposito settles on favoring fifth-seeded Syracuse
by 1½ over No. 12 Texas A&M even though he thinks the
Aggies are better.
By Tuesday, so many people had agreed and bet on Texas A&M,
he needed to move the spread to even to entice bettors to choose
Syracuse.
“I don't care who wins, as long as we win,” he said.
“If I could predict winners, I would be on the other side
of the counter.”
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